Expected Value (EV) is a core concept in gambling theory used to determine the long-term profitability of a specific bet or strategy. A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable decision in the long run, while a negative EV (-EV) indicates a losing one.
All licensed casino games, by design, have a negative EV for the player; this is another way of expressing the House Edge. However, the concept of EV becomes crucial when analyzing bonuses. A player can calculate the EV of a bonus by factoring in the bonus amount, the Wagering Requirement, and the RTP of the game they play. A bonus can have a +EV if the terms are sufficiently generous and the game's RTP is high enough.
All licensed casino games, by design, have a negative EV for the player; this is another way of expressing the House Edge. However, the concept of EV becomes crucial when analyzing bonuses. A player can calculate the EV of a bonus by factoring in the bonus amount, the Wagering Requirement, and the RTP of the game they play. A bonus can have a +EV if the terms are sufficiently generous and the game's RTP is high enough.
Real-World Examples
Simplified Formula:
EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing × Amount Lost)
EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing × Amount Lost)
FAQs
Can I use EV to win every time?<br>No. EV is a long-term mathematical expectation, not a predictor of short-term results. You can make a +EV decision and still lose in a single session due to statistical variance.